Will Xavier Worthy succeed in the modern NFL? Let’s take a comprehensive look at his strengths, weaknesses, and how the Chiefs are likely going to use him.
In the 2024 NFL Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs traded up in the first round (from pick 32 to 28) to select historic combine speedster Xavier Worthy out of the University of Texas. This selection instantly polarized both the general NFL media and Chiefs fans alike, sparking plenty of speculation on whether or not Worthy would become a successful wide receiver in the NFL.
Those who fell in love with the idea that the fastest wide receiver in this year’s draft would be joining an Andy Reid-led offense praised the selection as the next in a long line of incredible draft picks from NFL general manager Brett Veach.
This unmitigated zeal was met with an equal amount of negativity, as those who disagreed with the selection labeled Worthy as an inconsistent, fragile, and undersized WR incapable of making consistent contributions to the potential Chiefs’ three-peat. Like most prospect evaluations, the truth lies somewhere in between bust and superstar.
Worthy’s unique skillset presents a difficult challenge for scouts and pundits alike, as his smaller frame and current draft comparisons—former Bengals and Chiefs WR John Ross—severely limit how he is viewed. Is he the next Jaylen Waddle or a smaller version of Tavon Austin?
Let’s take a look at the concerns that come with lighter receivers, how Worthy compares to similar NFL receivers, and how he can be used in Andy Reid’s offense to maximize his potential.
The John Ross Comparison
The most banal comparison being used for Worthy is former Bengals/Chiefs receiver John Ross, a player who was mired in controversy after being selected 9th overall in the 2017 NFL Draft, then subsequently labeled a “bust” less than 2 seasons later. This comparison isn’t without some validity, as their most blinding trait (generational speed) defines their game. It does, however, seem to infer that Worthy will suffer the same fate and that his speed/agility will prevent him from becoming an effective NFL talent.
Ross’ college playstyle and production did not translate to the NFL because he was not utilized the same way in Cincinnati as he was in college, his agility didn’t match his speed, and his injuries prevented him from progressing. His disappointing professional career was also determined by a misunderstanding of prospect evaluation and how his game would translate to the NFL.
Ross’s college profile indicated that he would be a prototypical Z receiver, however, this is not how Cincinnati utilized him. For example, there are 3 routes that are consistently used by offensive coordinators to beat man coverage (slants, go routes, and curls). These routes are especially effective when used by a player with exceptional speed because their ability to threaten a deep completion downfield scares cornerbacks into staying back, thereby creating space. In college, John Ross ran slants, go routes, and curls for over 50% of his routes and possessed the exceptional speed to make them effective, yet he had just a 69% success rate vs man coverage. This was a blinding indicator that he would not be effective against man coverage in the NFL, except in special circumstances (underneath crossing routes, WR screens, etc.). However, Ross was particularly good against zone coverage, where he had an 80% success rate, well above the average WR prospect. Ross’s below-average arm length, smaller hands, and low contested catch rate were also indicators that his ability to win deep catches over the middle of the field was severely lacking.
Again, Ross’ prospect profile heading into the 2017 NFL Draft had him as a Z receiver and a down-the-field threat against zone coverage, with the potential to be a YAC threat. Yet, this was not how he was utilized during his time in Cincinnati, where they expected him to start at X receiver, beat man coverage deep down the field with his speed, and catch contested passes.
Xavier Worthy’s skillset is somewhat comparable, as his contested catch rate is poor and he probably won’t be great on the line against press-man cornerbacks in the X receiver role but, his ability to get open against man-coverage is what sets him apart from Ross. Worthy doesn’t just rely on his speed to get open, he does an incredible job at planning his routes and getting open reliably.
Worthy’s utilization and development will also be maximized by Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid, whose hall-of-fame resume is founded on his ability to get the most out of his players. With Reid and Mahomes’ help, Worthy’s chances of becoming the next John Ross are incredibly slim.
Now let’s discuss the size concerns.
Size Concerns
The belief that smaller wide receivers get injured more often than the rest is common, with the national sports media, former players, and NFL scouts adding their voices to the narrative, however, what evidence do they have to support that claim? It seems like common sense. The UFC (Ultimate Fighting Championship) has weight classes, the NFL is a contact sport without weight classes, therefore, little guys will always get injured more frequently than larger guys. However, what the evidence suggests might be surprising.
Of the 32 teams in the NFL, I charted 37 wide receivers that have slight to very light builds. This list included players like DeVonta Smith, Tank Dell, Marquise Brown, and Diontae Johnson, all of whom boast a slender frame, below-average weight for their height, and are known for their quickness/agility/speed. 156 other receivers were charted, all of whom played snaps during the season, and were found to have a body type inconsistent with the previous metric.
Over the 2023-2024 NFL season, 367 injuries were designated from NFL teams to wide receivers on their weekly injury report. For this study, only injuries that carried a “questionable”, “doubtful”, or “out” status and pertained to bodily injuries were considered to be “true injuries”. For example, a questionable designation pertaining to an ankle injury was charted, while a doubtful designation pertaining to an illness was not. Of the 367 injuries charted, 42 were designated to the 37 “slight” receivers, while the remaining 325 were applied to the 156 “non-slight” receivers. The final numbers leave us with a “true injury percentage” (T.I.P.) of 11.4% for “slight” receivers and 19.2% for “non-slight” receivers.
Meaning, that smaller receivers got injured less frequently than bigger receivers. Is this an indication that “slight” receivers are nearly twice as durable as bigger receivers? Possibly, however, I believe that usage plays a much bigger role in whether or not injuries occur.
NFL Head Coaches like Andy Reid, understand that players like Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill, and Marquise Brown aren’t going to be bruiser backs that you put in the backfield and run draw plays with on 3rd and short. Slight receivers like Xavier Worthy have limitations (as do all NFL players) and can only be healthy and effective when properly utilized.
Height and weight might be a great indicator of injury risks when evaluating running backs or quarterbacks, but when looking at wide receiver prospects, it is quite possibly the worst evaluation metric that can be used. If Xavier Worthy does not succeed in the NFL it will not be because he is injury-prone due to his size, it will be because Kansas City didn’t utilize his skillset in a way that is consistent with his ability.
Now, let’s look at how Xavier Worthy’s unique skillset and obvious limitations can be best utilized in an Andy Reid-style offense.
Worthy’s Future Usage
Brett Veach has made it very clear from his press conferences that the Chiefs see Worthy as a day 1 impact starter on both offense and special teams, but it’s important to understand how they envision Xavier Worthy will be used. For that, let’s look at what Worthy is good at, what he can’t/shouldn’t do, and how he can improve.
Brett Veach said he really likes Xavier Worthy's abilities as a returner.
He added that adding Worthy "will make life easier for Travis (Kelce) & Rashee (Rice)."
— Nate Taylor (@ByNateTaylor) April 26, 2024
Top Level Talent
Worthy’s generational speed and agility are what caught the eye of Veach and Reid, and that’s very apparent on tape. Worthy tortures defenders with the thought that they might end up on a highlight reel, watching a pass fly over their head, and having their coach chew them out on the sidelines. His favorite thing to do is run his route like he’s going deep, then make his move off the break.
In the clip below, Worthy lines up in the slot and gets a free release off the line of scrimmage (most likely because they are scared of him beating them deep). The defense is in an inverted Cover 2, which means they have 1 safety and 1 corner deep instead of 2 safeties. This means there is a huge vacancy in the middle of the field. Worthy threatens deep by running his route like a go, shrugs off the contact from the safety, then bends his route back towards the middle of the field for a huge completion.
Once again, X’s speed dictates defenses and how they’re played
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Defense is in an Cover 2 where the CB drops back deep and the S takes the hook-curl
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This means there’s going to be a HUGE vacancy in the middle if X can shrug the coverage and find the soft spot
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S moves up and… pic.twitter.com/eOOjzJmBPc— Smartest Guy in the Zoom (@CBreezy_Edits) May 5, 2024
This play demonstrates two things. The first is that Worthy understands how to beat physical defensive backs. The second is that if Mahomes throws that ball, it adds 40+ yards and a touchdown to his season stat total.
Utilization
Next, let’s look at what he was asked to do in college that probably won’t translate to the pros. Below, Worthy lines up in the slot on a goal-line look. His teammate shoots off the ball, makes a block, and tries to set him up for the touchdown. Worthy does his best to run a slant and make a play against multiple defensive backs running downhill.
X plays with his entire heart and soul
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Even though he won’t be doing much of this in the pros (God willing 🙏🏼), HC Steve Sarkisian decides to put him in a position where a LB & S are going to be coming downhill to take X’s head off
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X accepts the challenge, gives it his all,… pic.twitter.com/49SfHc2rCM— Smartest Guy in the Zoom (@CBreezy_Edits) May 5, 2024
Playing physically against 6’2″ safeties probably isn’t the most effective use of Worthy’s talents as a pass catcher, especially when his whip route and back-shoulder fade are much more effective. Imagine for a moment that Worthy was the one running Tom & Jerry or Corndog in the Super Bowl. This utilizes both his skills as a pass catcher and his incredible YAC (yards after catch) ability.
Lastly, let’s look at how Worthy can improve his game and become the best version of himself in the NFL.
Needs Improvement
Contested Catch Rate:
75.0% Rome Odunze
53.8% Brian Thomas Jr47.6% Xavier Legette
45.5% Malik Nabers
43.3% MHJ
40% Ladd McConkey37.5% Roman Wilson
36.8% Troy Franklin
36.4% Adonai Mitchell
33.3% Keon Coleman23.8% Xavier Worthy
— Bobby Ray 🦬 (@iambobbyray) April 4, 2024
Out of the top-11 wide receiver prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft, Worthy placed last in contested catch rate with an unimpressive 23.8%. There’s no doubt that some of that poor production is due to the inconsistent quarterback play that has plagued the Longhorns’ past two football seasons (22.4% off-target grade per @jagibbs_23), however, most of the blame has to be put on Worthy’s lack of ability/desire to go up and catch 50/50 throws.
Highest career off-target rates from the WR prospects I evaluated:
(per @TruMediaSports)
22.4% — Xavier Worthy
17.9% — Devontez Walker
17.6% — Ricky Pearsall
17.2% — Ainias Smith
16.8% — Keon Coleman
16.8% — Jermaine Burton
16.1% — Adonai Mitchell— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) April 4, 2024
Worthy’s size also becomes an issue, especially when he runs into physical, press-man coverage defensive backs. Worthy faced very little press coverage this year, as most defenses were too scared to do so, but with the improved athleticism and size of NFL defensive backs (as well as the advanced coaching from NFL defensive coordinators) the frequency that Worthy will see these looks is going to increase dramatically.
Final Evaluation
If Worthy can improve upon the worst parts of his game while also getting better at what makes him great, he has the potential to be the best pass catcher on the Chiefs in 1 to 2 years. Worthy brings an aspect to the Chiefs offense that it hasn’t had since Tyreek Hill left. His proficiency as a deep threat, combined with his YAC ability, makes him immediately better than Hardman was during his time in KC.
Now pair his talent with Travis Kelce’s reliability, Hollywood Brown’s adeptness at route running, Rashee Rice’s ability to read zone coverages, and Kadarius Toney’s playmaking and you have a very competent and effective Chiefs receiving core capable of securing the Chiefs 3-peat.
A conservative estimate for Xavier Worthy’s rookie stats would be around 600 yards and 4 touchdowns, however, when you account for a probable Rashee Rice suspension, Andy Reid’s desire to throw the ball down the field, and Patrick Mahomes’ RPG for an arm, something close to 1,000 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns is far more likely.
Worthy is going to thrive in this offense and personally, I cannot wait to see this man throttle the Bengals/Ravens/Texans in the playoffs and secure his place in immortality as the man who brought unbridled speed back into the Chiefs offense.
